MarsVenus Logo
Aktuelle Zeit: 23.10.2018, 00:54

Alle Zeiten sind UTC+02:00




Ein neues Thema erstellen  Auf das Thema antworten  [ 1 Beitrag ] 
Autor Nachricht
 Betreff des Beitrags: ncette and Nikolas Brouillard each
BeitragVerfasst: 09.04.2018, 08:46 
Offline
Rekordschreiber

Registriert: 14.12.2017, 10:06
Beiträge: 1185
At the 2014 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, there were some very bright minds discussing evolving uses of statistics and different strategies that can result; really, just from sharp minds discussing some interesting ideas. Then there was the Hockey Analytics panel. Okay, it wasnt necessarily that bad but this was my fifth year attending and every year my sense has been that the NHL lags so far behind baseball and basketball in its adoption of analytic concepts that it can become a frustrating exercise. This years Hockey Analytics panel included Calgary Flames president Brian Burke, Boston Bruins Assistant GM Don Sweeney, Washington Capitals Assistant GM Don Fishman, Merrimack College Head Coach Mark Dennehy and stats analyst Eric Tulsky. The panel was moderated by Dale Arnold, from NESN. Houston Rockets GM, and Conference Co-Chair, Daryl Morey noted that every NBA team has stats analysts. In the NHL, there are a few teams that have staff positions for someone in analytics. The Tampa Bay Lightning, for example, have Michael Peterson, who was at the conference, doing work as a statistical analyst and the New Jersey Devils recently had a job for a Director of Analytics posted on NHL.com. Its no coincidence that the Devils new ownership group, headed by Josh Harris, is also involved in the NBA, owning the Philadelphia 76ers, so they come from a world where analytics is simply a part of doing business. (As a complete aside, it blew me away that the Devils, who have traditionally guarded information like the CIA, would publicly announce intentions to hire a Director of Analytics, the kind of thing that most teams generally tend to keep secretive and under the radar.) Part of what made the Basketball and Baseball Analytics panels at Sloan successful is that they didnt waste time discussing whether there is value in analytics. For whatever reason, hockey panels at Sloan insist on having a counter voice, one loud voice belonging to Calgary Flames president Brian Burke, that this sport cant be helped by objective statistical analysis. On one hand, its good to have dissenting opinions so that every thought isnt lost in an echo chamber but, given the state of acceptance of hockey analytics, it could probably use a more positive approach at an analytics conference. Burke started to acknowledge, "Statistics have value; ignore at your peril," he said, before getting back on familiar ground, "But its an eyeballs business." Its understandable when anyone has been in the business for so long that they arent inclined to jump in at new methods of analysis, but Steven Burtch had a good take on the tendency to rely on eyeballs. Its been said more than a few times, that use of analytics doesnt guarantee anything, which is an odd standard to apply since not using analytics and sticking with eyeballs, hunches and gut instinct most certainly doesnt come with any guarantees of success either. The funny thing about using analytics is that, somehow -- likely through the famous scene with the scouts around the table in the movie Moneyball -- there persists the idea that anyone wants to use analytics without actually watching players play. At last years Sloan Conference, Tulskys paper on zone entries was a valuable insight into the game and he came up with the data by watching the games in minute detail, providing real analysis on numbers that werent provided elsewhere. All the game-watchers in the world couldnt tell you how much more important it is to carry the puck into the offensive zone rather than dumping it in and, by quantifying the results, Tulsky showed that, all things being equal, dumping the puck in should be a last resort. For what its worth, I watch games differently having seen that data. There were several instances in which it was clear that the panel wasnt really up to speed on hockey analytics. While moderator Dale Arnold had researched Tulskys work, and knew to ask about Score-Adjusted Fenwick rating, they also veered into a discussion based on the premise that advanced stats dont capture the essence of a player like Patrice Bergeron, which is crazy because advanced stats do a superior job to traditional stats in that respect. Hockey analytics LOVE Bergeron. Where the panel lost its way, in some respects, is that when Tulsky discussed how modern NHL analytics are based on shot attempts, because that offers more valuable statistical evidence, there was no follow-up. No one argued the point -- because what kind of footing would they be on if they dared? -- but it was left to hang out there until the panel moved to a new topic of conversation. Some of those topics: - Fishman marveled at the clutch performance of some players, referencing Alex Ovechkins ability to score in key moments and noted thats what analytics miss about Ovechkin is his desire to have the puck on his stick with the game on the line. I think its been established enough, throughout the sports world, that clutch might be a thing that exists, but is entirely unpredictable. Like character, this is the kind of thing that gets assigned to players after the fact. The funny thing is that I used analytics to defend Ovechkins performance this season and I might suggest that the reason analytics may not capture the essence of Alex Ovechkin is that the most basic of stats, goals, does a pretty bang-up job. How far down the list of the leagues leading goal-scorers would you have to get before you find one that didnt want the puck on his stick with the game on the line? 50? 100? - So while I take issue with Fishmans stance on measuring clutch performance, Fishman also cited the importance of using objective data, as opposed to teams using their own measures because those measures come with more inherent biases. Many NHL teams talk about tracking scoring chances, which is fine but, from my perspective, the concern in tracking scoring chances is 1) its correlation to Corsi and 2) at no point have I been under the impression that teams track scoring chances league-wide, which means covering only games involving their team. That kind of misses the point of analytics in many respects. While its useful to have more data on your own players, you also get to see them for 82 games and every practice, so there shouldnt be any grand surprises about the value of players that you see that often. Applying real value to data, in my opinion, has to involve measuring players league-wide so that there are some comparable baselines and insights that might help in player acquisition or determining contract value. Its one thing for the Bruins to say how their scoring chance data tells them just how valuable Patrice Bergeron is; its another to have any idea whether or not there are comparables elsewhere in the league. - There was some brief discussion of coaching analytics -- Michael Parkatti had done some work in this regard -- and its probably an area ripe for further exploration. Burke, speaking from the executive office as a GM or President tends to cut his coaches some slack, saying "The coach starts the game with the players we give them," which is true, but that doesnt mean that there isnt something to be gleaned about how a coach can affect a teams puck possession. Sweeney, who played 1223 regular season and playoff games for the Bruins and Stars, noted that players are visual learners and need to see examples that merge with analytical insight. This is the right approach, merging analytic findings with real-life, actionable solutions. Its one thing to know, due to analytics, that there is an area of concern; its another thing to have an idea how to fix the issue and express it clearly to those that can make changes. - Burke said if there was an analytics package that he believed would work, hed buy it in a second: "Were all looking for that edge." Burke and Toronto Maple Leafs GM Dave Nonis, his protege, are in lockstep - as both have publicly stated they will pay for analytics if they see value. They just dont see it yet. This goes back to the standard to which some hold analytics. For someone who freely admits hes made mistakes -- a function of a long career of drafting, signing and trading players -- its incongruous that Burke wouldnt see the possibility of potentially limiting those mistakes. Its not about being 100% right on all transactions -- analytics isnt about guarantees -- but if analytics made you "right" 60% instead of 55% of the time, then wouldnt that be pretty useful? Strangely enough, the Maple Leafs (represented by VP and Assistant GM Claude Loiselle) were one of a half dozen or so teams with hockey operations people in attendance. While the Leafs have shown a general disdain for analytics, Loiselles presence at the conference raises the question of whether they could be willing to learn a little -- at least to have a better idea what it is that they are so readily dismissing. - Not surprisingly, Burke is really big on the character of players they draft. I dont dispute need for character, but do think its subjectively over-valued and often assigned retroactively. The guy whose team wins or that has a long career is determined to have high character. Its one thing to tell a colourful story about Trevor Linden that shows his character and another to base hockey decisions on that information. Basically, there are plenty of guys with high character that arent necessarily great hockey players. As Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow noted on the Baseball Analytics Panel, "There is no correlation between being a nice guy or a good person and being a good baseball player." Ive yet to see the evidence to suggest that hockey functions differently. - Perhaps more interesting than the official Hockey Analytics Panel was discussing some of these concepts with others in attendance. In addition to Tulsky and Peterson, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds GM Kyle Dubas, Hockey Prospectus Editor-in-Chief Timo Seppa, as well as Michael Schuckers, Brian Macdonald -- both of whom have presented at the conference previously -- were all there to discuss and debate issues. You could probably have a more enlightened panel with some of the people in that group. Probably the most interesting discussion to me involved the merits of swing players, those who could play both forward and defence. After attending the Baseball Analytics Panel, in which they discussed the possibility of teams shifting their best defenders around the field according to a hitters tendencies, Dubas, Tulsky and I talked about how it might apply in hockey terms. Most recently, players like Dustin Byfuglien and Brent Burns are prominent players that have played both forward and defence; Sergei Fedorov took some turns on the Red Wings blueline and Christoph Schubert had that flexibility with the Ottawa Senators. Going further back, Rick Chartraw did it for the Montreal Canadiens in the late 1970s and while Paul Reinhart and Phil Houseley were primarily defencemen, they both logged some time at forward, as did Red Kelly as far back as 1960, so its not like its new to have players who can fit into the lineup in different spots. Our discussion, however, focused more on the idea that a team might, under some circumstances, go with four forwards and one defenceman in standard 5-on-5 play. Certainly, when trailing by a goal, it could make sense for the Jets to slide Byfuglien back on defence to upgrade their overall attack. While we debated the possibilities of how it might work, and what it might take to convince, coaches, scouts, players and agents to look at players in a slightly different way, the ultimate conclusion was that there could be real value in such a player, perhaps more than would be expected. Somtimes, the player who cant fit full-time on defence gets lumped into a fourth-line forward role (like Chartraw and Schubert) but having a player that is strong enough to handle both responsibilities could be a real asset. Anyway, the weighing of pros and cons with some smart guys made for an interesting discussion. - While the NBAs use of SportVu Player Tracking appears to be the wave of the future, there appears to be little appetite for it in the NHL to this point. Tulsky suggested that the teams that get in on the technology first may have the opportunity to gain a competitive edge but the margins will get decidedly slimmer if the technology was to ever be carried league-wide, like it is in the NBA. Once everyone has the data, then the advantage goes to the best analyst. - Tulsky says its hard to come up with a hockey version of WAR right now, but its possible some day. As someone who uses statistics to generate my NHL Player Rankings, I accept Erics positon, because it surely can get better, but I still find it useful to have a catch-all number to at least provide ballpark value on players. Michael Schuckers, who has presented at the conference in previous years, developed his Total Hockey Rating (THoR) in an attempt to come up with this kind of value. ESPN Insider NHL Draft/Prospect Writer Corey Pronman weighed in, via Twitter, making a point with which I agree: In order to do a proper stats analysis of a "player", need to examine 9-13 micro stats. Knowing how to combine & weigh is a bit of a skill. So, even if there is room for improvement on the Sloan Sports Conference Hockey Analytics Panel, thats almost fitting for a sport that has been slow to come around on the use of advanced stats. As Tulsky has found, there is progress being made and its easy enough to see how the trend towards advanced stats tilted in other sports so that, eventually, it will be part of standard business in the NHL too. Some day it will be accepted that having more knowledge at your disposal is better than less. Some day. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Deacon Jones Jersey . -- Detroit shortstop Jose Iglesias says he has stress fractures in both legs and isnt sure when hell be able to play again, leaving the Tigers two weeks to fill his spot for opening day and perhaps a lot longer. Kayvon Webster Jersey . According to various reports, the striker is about to sign a five-and-a-half year extension with Manchester United worth a reported 300,000 pounds a week that would see him at Old Trafford until 2019. http://www.ramsauthenticshop.com/Customized/.C. -- LeBron James called comments on an audio recording of a man identified as Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling "appalling" and said hes not sure if he would suit up for the remainder of the NBA playoffs if he played for the Clippers. Troy Hill Jersey . The rookie is rewarding their faith with a stellar first season. MacKinnon had a goal and two assists, Jamie McGinn had two goals and an assist, and Colorado beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-1 on Saturday. Orlando Pace Jersey . Thats the feeling that eight Canadian Football League teams are experiencing right now in advance of the expansion draft to stock the Ottawa Redblacks.QUEBEC -- Jan Kostalek scored twice, including 46 seconds into overtime, as the Rimouski Oceanic extended their win streak to 16 games by defeating the Quebec Remparts 4-3 on Friday in Quebec Major Junior Hockey League action. Felix-Antoine Savage and Tyler Boland also scored for the Oceanic (45-15-7) and Philippe Desrosiers made 22 saves for the victory. Adam Chapman forced overtime for the Remparts (38-17-12) when he scored at 19:47 of the third period while playing 6-on-5. Olivier Archambault and Nick Sorensen also scored for Quebec while Francois Brassard turned away 29-of-33 shots in defeat. --- TITAN 3 ISLANDERS 1 CHARLOTTETOWN -- Jacob Brennan made 36 saves as Acadie-Bathurst handed the Islanders their third straight defeat. Mark Trickett, Raphael Lafontaine and Simon Fortier scored for the Titan (22-39-6). Daniel Sprong scored the lone goal for Charlottetown (20-39-8) and Eric Brassard turned away 34-of-37 shots in a losing cause. Acadie-Bathurst went 2 for 5 on the power play as the Islanders went 1 for 6. --- MOOSEHEADS 7 SEA DOGS 2 HALIFAX -- Jonathan Drouin and Philippe Gadoury each had two goals and an assist as the Mooseheads toppled Saint John for their 12th win in a row. Bradnon Vuic, Nikolaj Ehlers and Brendan Duke also scored for Halifax (46-18-3) while MacKenzie Weegar tacked on three assists. Jurij Repe and Nicolas Hebert supplied the scoring for the Sea Dogs (19-43-5), who are on a six-game slide and out of contention for a playoff position. Zachary Fucale stopped all 11 shots he faced through two periods of play for the Mooseheads before giving way to Kevin Darveau, who stopped 10-of-12 shots in relief. Saint Johns Sebastien Auger made 35 saves in defeat. --- SCREAMING EAGLES 4 WILDCATS 3 MONCTON, N.B. -- Zachary Fortin made 34 saves as Cape Breton edged the Wildcats for its fourth win in a row. Michael Lyle and Charles-Eric Legare had a goal and an assist apiece for the Screaming Eagles (37-26-4) while Kyle Farrell and Julien Pelletier added the others. Vladimir Tkachev, Gareth Nicholson and Christophe Lalonde scored for Moncton (32-32-3) and Alex Dubeau allowed four goals on 15 shots in defeat. Wildcats forward Christopher Caissy received a major and game misconduct at 16:07 of the second period for goaltender interference. --- DRAKKAR 4 SAGUENEENS 0 CHICOUTIMI, Que. -- Denis Gorbunov had a pair of goals and Philippe Cadorette stopped 25 shots as Baie-Comeau blanked the Sagueneens.dddddddddddd. Alexandre Chenevert and Gabryel Paquin-Boudreau also scored for the Drakkar (46-16-5), who remain atop the QMJHL standings with one regular-season game remaining on schedule. Janne Puhakka and Nikita Liamkin led all Chicoutimi (27-39-1) skaters with three shots apiece on Cadorette. Julio Billia turned aside 43-of-47 shots for the Sagueneens, who are 2-8-0 in their last 10 outings. --- FOREURS 6 ARMADA 1 BOISBRIAND, Que. -- Antoine Bibeau made 26 saves as Val-dOr defeated the Armada for its fourth win in a row. Anthony Mantha and Samuel Henley each had a goal and an assist for the Foreurs (45-20-2) and Louick Marcotte, Maxime Presseault, Timotej Sille and Pierre-Maxime Poudrier added single goals. Christopher Clapperton scored for Blainville-Boisbriand (40-17-10). Etienne Marcoux gave up six goals on 23 shots in 55 minutes of action before giving way to Samuel Montembeault, who stopped both shots he faced in relief. --- VOLTIGEURS 4 HUSKIES 1 DRUMMONDVILLE, Que. -- William Carrier had two goals and an assist as the Voltigeurs downed Rouyn-Noranda. Cameron Askew and Frederick Gaudreau also scored for Drummondville (41-21-4) while Ryan Culkin, Christophe Lalancette and Nikolas Brouillard each had two assists. Julien Nantel scored for the Huskies (34-27-5), who are winless in four games. Louis-Phillip Guindon made 15 saves for the Voltigeurs as Rouyn-Norandas Alexandre Belanger stopped 33 shots in defeat. --- OLYMPIQUES 7 PHOENIX 1 GATINEAU, Que. -- Vincent Dunn scored four times as the Olympiques toppled Sherbrooke. Vaclav Karabacek, Simon Tardif-Richard and Alexis Pepin also scored for Gatineau (41-22-4) and Martin Reway had three assists. Anthony Brodeur made 23 saves for the Olympiques. Jean-Francois Lavoie scored for the Phoenix (16-42-9), who are on a seven-game skid and officially eliminated from the QMJHL playoffs, and Gabriel Parent turned away 26-of-33 shots in defeat. --- CATARACTES 4 TIGRES 2 SHAWINIGAN, Que. -- Felix-Antoine Bergeron had a hat trick and Marvin Cupper made 39 saves as the Cataractes clinched the final playoff spot by doubling up Victoriaville. Anthony Beauvillier also scored for Shawinigan (19-38-9) and Nicholas Welsh had two assists. Julien Leduc and Jonathan Diaby scored for the Tigres (33-25-8). Victoriavilles Francois Tremblay stopped 18-of-21 shots in a losing cause. Cheap NFL Jerseys China Wholesale Jerseys China Cheap Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys China Wholesale Jerseys 2019 Cheap Jerseys Wholesale Cheap NFL Jerseys ' ' '


Nach oben
   
Beiträge der letzten Zeit anzeigen:  Sortiere nach  
Ein neues Thema erstellen  Auf das Thema antworten  [ 1 Beitrag ] 

Alle Zeiten sind UTC+02:00


Wer ist online?

Mitglieder in diesem Forum: 0 Mitglieder und 5 Gäste


Du darfst keine neuen Themen in diesem Forum erstellen.
Du darfst keine Antworten zu Themen in diesem Forum erstellen.
Du darfst deine Beiträge in diesem Forum nicht ändern.
Du darfst deine Beiträge in diesem Forum nicht löschen.

Suche nach:
Gehe zu Forum:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited
Deutsche Übersetzung durch phpBB.de